Writing

Structural diagnosis,
long form

Essays on climate tech, earth observation, energy markets, and the systems that shape them. Each piece diagnoses a structural pattern — the mechanism that makes failure inevitable, not just the failure itself.

The Climate-Native Founder-to-CEO Transition

HBR owns the generic founder-to-CEO transition. The climate-specific version — where the founder's technical depth is genuinely irreplaceable and the operating model runs four cadences — is uncontested.

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Six Layers Downstream from Reality

Two climate risk providers assess the same building under the same scenario. One says high flood risk. The other says zero. The divergence is not an outlier. It is the documented norm across every major benchmarking exercise to date.

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They Raised on Climate. Defence Showed Up.

Between 2021 and 2022, five Earth Observation companies went public promising commercial customers. Combined projections exceeded $5.7 billion by 2025. Actual revenue came in under $680 million. Most of it came from the military.

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We've Solved This Before

Climate change is the first environmental problem in the historical record where every structural condition for coordination is absent at once. The alternatives exist. The system that needs to change cannot profit from switching.

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Six Regulations, One Observation System, No Standard

The EU spent nearly €10 billion on Copernicus and over €300 million on Destination Earth. Six regulations now require satellite data for compliance. None of them references a common standard. The observation system does not produce one.

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Finland's Innovation Doom Loop

The country that produced Linux, modern semiconductors, and the world's wireless infrastructure is systematically dismantling the conditions that made any of it possible.

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Why Earth Observation Can't Become Weather

A satellite images a farmer's soil every six days with precision no ground sensor matches. She has never seen the data. No app delivers it. The satellite might as well not exist. 150 years of weather history explains why.

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Europe's Flagship Climate Policy Wasn't Designed to Fail. It Failed by Design.

The EU's carbon market was designed to eliminate emissions. It built a financial industry that needs them to continue. Four design choices, each economically logical, each producing consequences the designers never modelled.

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Actionable Insights, Unexamined Assumptions

Every institution was designed for a planet that no longer exists. AI in Earth observation is the most sophisticated epicycle ever built — transforming how we see the planet while delivering that seeing into frameworks that can only absorb information confirming the world they were designed for.

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A fable of two roadmaps

A fifteen-year story of how a climate tech company became a defence contractor — not through one dramatic decision, but through a thousand small rational ones. No single decision was wrong. That's the whole point.

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Why your electricity bill makes no sense.

Europe prices all electricity at the cost of the most expensive generator running. You pay gas prices for wind power. The system was designed for fuel-burning grids. It's now absurd — and five interlocking feedback loops keep it locked in place.

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Finland has the highest unemployment in Europe. This is a choice.

Finland's unemployment hit 10.3% — highest in the EU. This isn't bad luck. It's what happens when you simultaneously deplete healthcare, education, R&D, and employability stocks while restricting immigration.

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The Complexity Paradox

Science rewards complexity. Commercial markets reward clarity. The gap between what we're trained to build and what buyers actually need explains why brilliant Earth observation companies keep defaulting to defence.

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The Satellites See Everything. We're Asking Them the Wrong Questions.

We have more eyes on Earth than ever. Thousands of satellites capture terabytes daily. But we keep fitting transformative data into frameworks built for a planet that no longer exists.

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